Staff Roundtable - Could Purdue Men’s Basketball Three-Pete? - Hammer and Rails

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Plus, let’s set some expectations.

Basketball is just around the corner and we’ve been ramping up our coverage. Saturday marks the first exhibition game and so I thought it was a perfect time to set the table for expectations for the season. Obviously these will be much loftier than football. What a dichotomy we’ve got here huh?

So, here’s the question I asked the staff. What are your expectations for Purdue basketball’s conference finish? Could they get the three-Pete?

Ledman:

A three-Pete would be an incredible bit of coaching for Matt Painter and the staff. To win the conference after losing the National Player of the Year is not an easy feat. Of course, Purdue has done it once before. In fact, it happened during the last Three-Pete. Purdue lost Glenn Robinson to the NBA Draft, where he was the #1 pick, following the 1993-1994 season. Purdue won the Big Ten that season. They would go on to win the Big Ten the next two years as well. So it’s not impossible by any means but it’s certainly tough. A three-Pete though isn’t as rare as you’d expect. Michigan State completed that very thing from 2018-2020 but haven’t won a title since. Before that, Michigan won four in a row from 1998-2001, Ohio State won three in a row from 2010-2012. It should be noted that none of those prior Three-Pete or more were all solo titles. The last team to win three outright Big Ten regular season titles in men’s basketball? Why, Purdue from 1994-1996. If Purdue were to win the conference outright again this year it would be something not done by anyone in nearly 30 years.

All that’s a lot of preamble to get to my answer. I do think Purdue is the favorite to win the Big Ten again this year. Illinois and IU are the two main competitors in my mind as we stand here without a single second of actual game being played. Michigan State should always be in the conversation because of Tom Izzo even if I do think that he’s lost a step. Of those four teams I just feel the best about Purdue’s chances to come out cohesive early in the Big Ten season. IU is going to have a ton of talent, but can they gel as a team? Illinois has Brad Underwood who might yell like a mad man but can surely coach the roundball. So, my expectations? I expect Purdue to finish in the top 4 of the conference, now 18 teams so even tougher to finish top 4, and challenge for a title. Do I think Purdue will win the conference? I do, but I think winning it outright will require the 4 and 5 positions to be locked in by Big Ten season. It’s a tall task (pun intended).

Ryan:

I expect Purdue to finish no worse than 3rd in the Big Ten. Yes, my expectations are lofty but that’s a reflection of the program Matt Painter and company have built.

I think it is entirely possible, if not likely, that Purdue wins its third consecutive Big Ten Regular Season Championship. I do not think Purdue would win the Big Ten by 3 games again but when you lose the 2-time NPOY, your humble hustle guy, and a fan-favorite PG combined with other teams getting better, the competition gets tighter. We should gear up because #27 might be on the horizon.

Jed:

I think the expectation under Matt Painter will always be a top 4 finish in the B1G because that is the standard he has set under his leadership with just 6 seasons finishing below that standard in his 19 years at Purdue. That should be the goal every season, especially when you consider the B1G added four really good programs in UCLA, USC, Washington, and Oregon to the conference. A top four finish in the B1G now is likely a guaranteed seed of nothing less than on the four line, which is where you want to be to find that consistent success in the NCAA Tourney.

Can the Boilers Three-Pete? Yes, and it starts with likely the best point guard in the conference and probably the second best behind only Mark Sears at Alabama. Smith seems likely to be the biggest beneficiary outside of Trey Kaufman-Renn with Zach Edey in the NBA now. Smith will be asked to do more for the Boilers than he has the previous two seasons but that likely comes in the form of being more aggressive to be the primary scorer more often than not. When you have a point guard who can not only go out and get you twenty points along with ten assists on any given night, that’s a recipe for success on a consistent basis in college basketball. Smith may be the closest thing to Magic Johnson that the B1G has seen (seriously, go look at his stats the last two seasons in terms of points, rebounds, and assists) and that level of player elevates everyone around him and with the bevy of shooters around him this season, Purdue could be worse defensively but possibly even better offensively.

Drew:

Purdue Basketball? Sir, this is a football school. If we must talking squeaky shoes, shooty hoops, I guess this is the week to do it. Purdue comes into the season with a bunch of answers on the roster, but I’m not sure of the question at the moment.

This looks like the 2018/19 team that took a little bit to find their ideal playing style. For that reason, I think a 3-Peat is possible, but not probable.

I don’t know what the starting lineup is going to look like or even the style of play of this team. Painter won’t lack for options, that much is certain.

Kyle:

Purdue returns one of the most experienced backcourt in the country, we have watched Loyer and Smith grow up the last two seasons. The big question is obviously how Matt Painter replaces the productivity of Zach Edey. The answer is that you really won’t be able to, but expect a more guard-centric offense centered around Braden Smith.

It will be a tough road for Purdue to three-Pete, but it is not out of the realm. Coach Painter gets the most out of his players and it is feasible to believe that returning players will make another leap forward. Anything less than a top 4 finish in the Big Ten would be disappointing, as Coach Painter has set the bar that high year in and year out for Purdue fans. I would not be shocked for a three-Pete, but it will be a battle this season.